Figures and data in National Institutes of Health research project grant inflation 1998 to 2021

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Version of Record published: March 3, 2023 (This version)
Accepted Manuscript updated: February 13, 2023 (Go to version)
Accepted Manuscript published: February 10, 2023 (Go to version)
Accepted: January 18, 2023
Received: October 17, 2022
Preprint posted: October 7, 2022 (Go to version)

Figures
Tables
Additional files

16 figures, 6 tables and 7 additional files

Figures

Figure 1

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Number of funded RPGs and RPG Principal Investigators (panel A) and inflationary indices (panel B) by fiscal year.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013). Indices shown in Panel B for fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024 are projected and therefore diplayed with thinner dotted lines.

Figure 2

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Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Figure 3

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Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) indirect costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

TThe vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Figure 4

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Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) costs for NIH-funded R01-equivalent awards, FY1998 to FY2021.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Figure 5

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Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers, of box plots shown in Appendix 1—figure 2.

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. Panel A is based on untransformed real costs, while Panel B is based on log-10 transformed real costs. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Figure 6

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Trends in solicited and unsolicited RPGs FY1998 to FY2021.

(A): Log-transformed costs according to NIH solicitation. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. (B): Percent of RPG projects and percent of RPG funding going to solicited awards. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Figure 7

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Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers of box plots showing distribution of costs of unsolicited RPG awards (Appendix 1—figure 4).

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. Panel A is based on untransformed real costs, while Panel B is based on log-10 transformed real costs. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Figure 8

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Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers of box plots showing distribution of costs of solicited RPG awards (Appendix 1—figure 4).

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. Panel A is based on untransformed real costs, while Panel B is based on log-10 transformed real costs. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Figure 9

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Actual and random-forest regression log-transformed costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 1

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Number of funded R01-equivalent awards by fiscal year.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 2

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Box plot distributions of total costs (panel A) and log-transformed costs (panel B) for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The diamonds refer to mean values. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted.

Appendix 1—figure 3

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Distribution of total funds to the top and bottom centiles (A) and deciles (B) of NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 4

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Box plot distributions of log-transformed costs for unsolicited (panel A) and solicited (panel B) NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The diamonds refer to mean values. Y-axes are similarly scaled for easier comparison. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted.

Appendix 1—figure 5

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Trends in R21 and R03 projects and funding FY1998 to FY2021.

(A): Costs according to R21 and R03 projects versus of all others. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. (B): Percent of RPG projects and percent of RPG funding going to R21 and R03 projects. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 6

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Trends in costs for RPGs involving and not involving clinical trials FY2010 to FY2021.

(A): Log-transformed costs according to clinical trials for NIH-funded RPGs, FY2010 to FY2021. (B): Box-plot distributions of log-transformed total costs for NIH-funded RPGs supporting clinical trials, FY2010 to FY2021. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted.

Appendix 1—figure 7

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Trends in funding and costs for RPGs according to whether projects did or did not involve animal models and / or human participants FY1998 to FY2021.

(A): Log-transformed costs of NIH-funded RPGs according to involvement of human participants and/or animal models, FY1998 to FY2021. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. (B): Proportion of RPG-funding going to different types of projects according to involvement of human participants and/or animal models, FY1998 to FY2021. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Tables

Table 1

Characteristics of RPGs in selected fiscal years.

Characteristic		1998	2003	2013	2019	2021
Total N (%)		26882 (15.5)	35513 (20.5)	33047 (19.1)	38241 (22.1)	39513 (22.8)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)	Mean (SD)	0.53 (0.58)	0.61 (0.76)	0.52 (0.70)	0.56 (0.88)	0.57 (0.90)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPI	Mean (SD)	5.63 (0.27)	5.69 (0.26)	5.62 (0.25)	5.64 (0.27)	5.65 (0.26)
Indirect Costs ($M BRDPI)	Mean (SD)	0.17 (0.17)	0.19 (0.19)	0.16 (0.16)	0.17 (0.22)	0.17 (0.21)
Unsolicited	Yes	21905 (81.5)	25913 (73.0)	23300 (70.5)	24153 (63.2)	23471 (59.4)
R01-Equivalent	Yes	21543 (80.1)	30124 (84.8)	26199 (79.3)	29341 (76.7)	31258 (79.1)
R21 or R03	Yes	1424 (5.3)	3920 (11.0)	4805 (14.5)	5478 (14.3)	4949 (12.5)
Program Grant	Yes	811 (3.0)	984 (2.8)	595 (1.8)	374 (1.0)	328 (0.8)
Cooperative Agreement	Yes	623 (2.3)	1493 (4.2)	1709 (5.2)	2437 (6.4)	2404 (6.1)
Costs > $5 million BRDPI	Yes	38 (0.1)	102 (0.3)	70 (0.2)	140 (0.4)	135 (0.3)
Clinical Trial	Yes			2389 (7.2)	3706 (9.7)	4176 (10.6)
Human or Animal	Neither	5715 (21.3)	6799 (19.1)	6197 (18.8)	7207 (18.8)	7627 (19.3)
	Animal	11357 (42.2)	14877 (41.9)	14842 (44.9)	16231 (42.4)	16633 (42.1)
	Human	7063 (26.3)	10529 (29.6)	9424 (28.5)	11275 (29.5)	11820 (29.9)
	Both	2747 (10.2)	3308 (9.3)	2584 (7.8)	3528 (9.2)	3433 (8.7)
Organization Type	Institute of Higher Education	22005 (81.9)	28911 (81.4)	27041 (81.8)	31434 (82.2)	32564 (82.4)
	Research Organization	2287 (8.5)	3105 (8.7)	2626 (7.9)	2634 (6.9)	2598 (6.6)
	Independent Hospital	2097 (7.8)	2634 (7.4)	2641 (8.0)	3367 (8.8)	3495 (8.8)
	Other	493 (1.8)	863 (2.4)	739 (2.2)	806 (2.1)	856 (2.2)

RPG = Research Project Grant. BRDPI = Biomedical Research andDevelopment Price Index. All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, based on 2021 dollars).

Table 2

Characteristics of R01 equivalent grants in selected fiscal years.

Characteristic		1998	2003	2013	2019	2021
Total N (%)		21543 (15.6)	30124 (21.8)	26199 (18.9)	29341 (21.2)	31258 (22.6)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)	Mean (SD)	0.53 (0.48)	0.60 (0.70)	0.52 (0.48)	0.56 (0.52)	0.56 (0.50)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPI	Mean (SD)	5.67 (0.19)	5.72 (0.20)	5.66 (0.18)	5.69 (0.19)	5.70 (0.19)
Nominal Direct Costs ($M)	Mean (SD)	0.19 (0.20)	0.25 (0.36)	0.30 (0.35)	0.37 (0.41)	0.39 (0.41)
Nominal Direct Costs $250 K or Less	Yes	18962 (88.0)	23701 (78.7)	16288 (62.2)	11824 (40.3)	10351 (33.1)
Nominal Direct Costs $500 K or More	Yes	485 (2.3)	1243 (4.1)	1652 (6.3)	3625 (12.4)	4450 (14.2)
Indirect Costs ($M BRDPI)	Mean (SD)	0.17 (0.12)	0.19 (0.15)	0.16 (0.10)	0.17 (0.13)	0.18 (0.12)
Unsolicited	Yes	18445 (85.6)	24337 (80.8)	19873 (75.9)	20642 (70.4)	20637 (66.0)
Costs > $5 million BRDPI	Yes	23 (0.1)	69 (0.2)	33 (0.1)	41 (0.1)	47 (0.2)
Clinical Trial	Yes			1818 (6.9)	2581 (8.8)	3046 (9.7)
Human or Animal	Neither	4612 (21.4)	5923 (19.7)	4830 (18.4)	5299 (18.1)	5773 (18.5)
	Animal	9331 (43.3)	12966 (43.0)	12209 (46.6)	12991 (44.3)	13621 (43.6)
	Human	5535 (25.7)	8632 (28.7)	7110 (27.1)	8207 (28.0)	9023 (28.9)
	Both	2065 (9.6)	2603 (8.6)	2050 (7.8)	2844 (9.7)	2841 (9.1)
Organization Type	Institute of Higher Education	17646 (81.9)	24616 (81.7)	21461 (81.9)	24119 (82.2)	25811 (82.6)
	Research Organization	1814 (8.4)	2567 (8.5)	2068 (7.9)	2006 (6.8)	2007 (6.4)
	Independent Hospital	1679 (7.8)	2218 (7.4)	2076 (7.9)	2597 (8.9)	2784 (8.9)
	Other	404 (1.9)	723 (2.4)	594 (2.3)	619 (2.1)	656 (2.1)

BRDPI = Biomedical Research and Development Price Index.All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, based on 2021 dollars).

Table 3

Characteristics of FY2021 and FY2010 RPGs according to solicitation status.

Characteristic		Solicited 2021	Unsolicited 2021	Solicited 2010	Unsolicited 2010
Total N (%)		16042 (40.6)	23471 (59.4)	9697 (28.0)	24986 (72.0)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)	Mean (SD)	0.71 (1.36)	0.48 (0.31)	0.65 (1.28)	0.52 (0.47)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPI	Mean (SD)	5.69 (0.33)	5.63 (0.20)	5.65 (0.35)	5.66 (0.20)
R01-Equivalent	Yes	10621 (66.2)	20637 (87.9)	6677 (68.9)	22196 (88.8)
R21 or R03	Yes	2750 (17.1)	2199 (9.4)	2248 (23.2)	1857 (7.4)
Costs > $5 million BRDPI	Yes	121 (0.8)	14 (0.1)	55 (0.6)	32 (0.1)
Cooperative Agreement	Yes	2327 (14.5)	77 (0.3)	1478 (15.2)	208 (0.8)
Clinical Trial	Yes	3104 (19.3)	1072 (4.6)	1335 (13.8)	1067 (4.3)
Human or Animal	Neither	3407 (21.2)	4220 (18.0)	1632 (16.8)	5096 (20.4)
	Animal	4579 (28.5)	12054 (51.4)	3151 (32.5)	12696 (50.8)
	Human	6823 (42.5)	4997 (21.3)	4287 (44.2)	5347 (21.4)
	Both	1233 (7.7)	2200 (9.4)	627 (6.5)	1847 (7.4)
Organization Type	Institute of Higher Education	12983 (80.9)	19581 (83.4)	7662 (79.0)	20848 (83.4)
	Research Organization	1214 (7.6)	1384 (5.9)	902 (9.3)	1836 (7.3)
	Independent Hospital	1419 (8.8)	2076 (8.8)	824 (8.5)	1824 (7.3)
	Other	426 (2.7)	430 (1.8)	309 (3.2)	478 (1.9)

RPG = Research Project Grant. BRDPI = Biomedical Research and Development Price Index. All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, basedon 2021 dollars).

Table 4

Characteristics of FY2021 and FY2010 R01 equivalent grant awards according to solicitation status.

Characteristic		Solicited 2021	Unsolicited 2021	Solicited 2010	Unsolicited 2010
Total N (%)		10621 (34.0)	20637 (66.0)	6677 (23.1)	22,196 (76.9)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)	Mean (SD)	0.67 (0.73)	0.51 (0.30)	0.74 (1.19)	0.50 (0.38)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPI	Mean (SD)	5.74 (0.24)	5.67 (0.15)	5.75 (0.27)	5.67 (0.15)
Nominal Direct Costs ($M)	Mean (SD)	0.47 (0.62)	0.34 (0.23)	0.42 (0.78)	0.27 (0.26)
Nominal Direct Costs $250 K or Less	Yes	3049 (28.7)	7302 (35.4)	3121 (46.7)	15,702 (70.7)
Nominal Direct Costs $500 K or More	Yes	2460 (23.2)	1990 (9.6)	1191 (17.8)	832 (3.7)
Costs > $5 million BRDPI	Yes	35 (0.3)	12 (0.1)	44 (0.7)	26 (0.1)
Clinical Trial	Yes	2126 (20.0)	920 (4.5)	976 (14.6)	927 (4.2)
Human or Animal	Neither	2337 (22.0)	3436 (16.6)	1017 (15.2)	4525 (20.4)
	Animal	2902 (27.3)	10719 (51.9)	2202 (33.0)	11,451 (51.6)
	Human	4656 (43.8)	4367 (21.2)	3055 (45.8)	4686 (21.1)
	Both	726 (6.8)	2115 (10.2)	403 (6.0)	1534 (6.9)
Organization Type	Institute of Higher Education	8650 (81.4)	17161 (83.2)	5259 (78.8)	18,519 (83.4)
	Research Organization	791 (7.4)	1216 (5.9)	632 (9.5)	1639 (7.4)
	Independent Hospital	904 (8.5)	1880 (9.1)	579 (8.7)	1604 (7.2)
	Other	276 (2.6)	380 (1.8)	207 (3.1)	434 (2.0)

BRDPI = BiomedicalResearch and Development Price Index. All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, based on 2021dollars).

Appendix 1—table 1

Linear Regression Models for log-10 transformed BRDPI-adjusted (or real) total costs of RPGs funded from FY1998 to FY2021.

Values shown for each variable are regression coefficients (standard errors). Model 1 considers time (fiscal year) only, while Model 2 factors in other variables. Model 1 explained only 0.6% of total variance, while Model 2 explained 47% of variance. Regression diagnostics indicated poor fit due largely to fat tails, which were present even after log-10 transformation. Table constructed using the R package texreg; see Leifeld, 2013, Journal of Statistical Software, 55(8), 1–24.

	Model 1	Model 2
Intercept	$5.629 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$5.477 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY1999	$0.013 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.011 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2000	$0.033 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.028 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2001	$0.049 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.045 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2002	$0.059 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.059 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2003	$0.062 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.067 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2004	$0.061 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.071 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2005	$0.054 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.066 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2006	$0.035 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.048 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2007	$0.020 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.037 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2008	$0.008 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.028 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2009	$0.018 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.033 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2010	$0.023 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.036 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2011	$0.012 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.047 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2012	$0.010 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.049 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2013	$- 0.010 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.031 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2014	$0.004 (0.002)$	$0.045 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2015	$0.002 (0.002)$	$0.046 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2016	$0.008 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.053 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2017	$0.013 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.054 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2018	$0.012 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.052 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2019	$0.012 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.055 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2020	$0.023 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.063 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2021	$0.026 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.061 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
Unsolicited before 2010		$- 0.003 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Unsolicited after 2010		$- 0.026 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
R01 Equivalent		$0.115 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Clinical Trial		$0.040 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Human Only		$0.030 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Animal Only		$0.080 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Both Human and Animal		$0.067 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Research Organization		$0.056 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Indepdent Hospital		$0.034 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Other Organization		$0.029 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Cooperative Agreement		$0.263 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Program Grant		$0.741 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
R21 or R03		$- 0.278 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
R²	0.006	0.471
Adj. R²	0.006	0.471
Num. obs.	827815	827815
$^{* * } p < 0.001$ ; $^{ } p < 0.01$ ; $^{} p < 0.05$ .

^∗∗∗p < 0.001;^∗∗p < 0.01;^∗p < 0.05.

Appendix 1—table 2

Results of random forest regression for log-10 transformed BRDPI-adjusted (or real) total costs of a 1% random sample of RPGs funded from FY1998 to FY2021.

A model that consider fiscal year as the sole variable only explained 0.3% of total variance. A model that included the 10 variables listed in the table explained 47% of the total variance. The variable importance reflects the deterioration in prediction error when the value for a variable is determined randomly, as opposed to its actual value. Variables reflecting compositional factors (like the type of award mechanism) were much more important than time (that is fiscal year) in predicting real total grant costs.

Variable	Importance
Program Grant	0.2615546
R21 or R03	0.0990313
Cooperative Agreement	0.0954948
R01 Equivalent	0.0599555
Fiscal Year	0.0093220
Organizational Type	0.0091677
Human	0.0070634
Unsolicited	0.0037442
Clinical Trial	0.0034817
Animal	0.0030754

Additional files

MDAR checklist: https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-mdarchecklist1-v3.docx
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Source data 1 BRDPI_change_2021 xlsx; data file with values for the Biomedical Research and Development Price Index (BRDPI) used to generate Figure 1, panel B.: https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data1-v3.xlsx
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Source data 2 GDP_change_2021 xlsx; data file with value for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index used to generate Figure 1, panel B.: https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data2-v3.xlsx
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Source data 3 rpg_anon_id RData; anonymized source data (in $R$ format) used to generate all text, tables, and figures (except Figure 1, panel B and the red line with circles in Figure 1, panel A) in the main manuscript and appendix.: https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data3-v3.zip
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Source data 4 awardee_summary RData; source data (in $R$ format) used to generate the red line (with circles) in Figure 1, panel A.: https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data4-v3.zip
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Source code 1 RPG inflation 1 16 23 Rmd: $R$ markdown file which contains a data dictionary and code used to generate all text, tables, and figures in the main manuscript.: https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-code1-v3.zip
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Source code 2 RPG inflation 1 16 23 appendix Rmd: $R$ markdown file which contains a data dictionary and code used to generate all text, tables, and figures in the appendix.: https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-code2-v3.zip
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Michael S Lauer
Joy Wang
Deepshikha Roychowdhury

(2023)

National Institutes of Health research project grant inflation 1998 to 2021

eLife 12:e84245.

https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.84245

	Model 1	Model 2
Intercept	$5.629 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$5.477 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY1999	$0.013 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.011 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2000	$0.033 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.028 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2001	$0.049 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.045 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2002	$0.059 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.059 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2003	$0.062 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.067 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2004	$0.061 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.071 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2005	$0.054 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.066 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2006	$0.035 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.048 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2007	$0.020 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.037 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2008	$0.008 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.028 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2009	$0.018 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.033 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2010	$0.023 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.036 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2011	$0.012 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.047 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2012	$0.010 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.049 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2013	$- 0.010 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.031 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2014	$0.004 (0.002)$	$0.045 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2015	$0.002 (0.002)$	$0.046 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2016	$0.008 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.053 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2017	$0.013 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.054 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2018	$0.012 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.052 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2019	$0.012 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.055 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2020	$0.023 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.063 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
FY2021	$0.026 {(0.002)}^{, *}$	$0.061 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
Unsolicited before 2010		$- 0.003 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Unsolicited after 2010		$- 0.026 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
R01 Equivalent		$0.115 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Clinical Trial		$0.040 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Human Only		$0.030 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Animal Only		$0.080 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Both Human and Animal		$0.067 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Research Organization		$0.056 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Indepdent Hospital		$0.034 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Other Organization		$0.029 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Cooperative Agreement		$0.263 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
Program Grant		$0.741 {(0.002)}^{, *}$
R21 or R03		$- 0.278 {(0.001)}^{, *}$
R²	0.006	0.471
Adj. R²	0.006	0.471
Num. obs.	827815	827815
$^{* * } p < 0.001$ ; $^{ } p < 0.01$ ; $^{} p < 0.05$ .

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Number of funded RPGs and RPG Principal Investigators (panel A) and inflationary indices (panel B) by fiscal year.

Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) indirect costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) costs for NIH-funded R01-equivalent awards, FY1998 to FY2021.

Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers, of box plots shown in Appendix 1—figure 2.

Trends in solicited and unsolicited RPGs FY1998 to FY2021.

Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers of box plots showing distribution of costs of unsolicited RPG awards (Appendix 1—figure 4).

Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers of box plots showing distribution of costs of solicited RPG awards (Appendix 1—figure 4).

Actual and random-forest regression log-transformed costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

Number of funded R01-equivalent awards by fiscal year.

Box plot distributions of total costs (panel A) and log-transformed costs (panel B) for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

Distribution of total funds to the top and bottom centiles (A) and deciles (B) of NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

Box plot distributions of log-transformed costs for unsolicited (panel A) and solicited (panel B) NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

Trends in R21 and R03 projects and funding FY1998 to FY2021.

Trends in costs for RPGs involving and not involving clinical trials FY2010 to FY2021.

Trends in funding and costs for RPGs according to whether projects did or did not involve animal models and / or human participants FY1998 to FY2021.

Characteristics of RPGs in selected fiscal years.

Characteristics of R01 equivalent grants in selected fiscal years.

Characteristics of FY2021 and FY2010 RPGs according to solicitation status.

Characteristics of FY2021 and FY2010 R01 equivalent grant awards according to solicitation status.

Linear Regression Models for log-10 transformed BRDPI-adjusted (or real) total costs of RPGs funded from FY1998 to FY2021.

Results of random forest regression for log-10 transformed BRDPI-adjusted (or real) total costs of a 1% random sample of RPGs funded from FY1998 to FY2021.

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