National Institutes of Health research project grant inflation 1998 to 2021

  1. Michael S Lauer  Is a corresponding author
  2. Joy Wang
  3. Deepshikha Roychowdhury
  1. National Institutes of Health Office of the Director, United States
  2. National Institutes of Health Office of Extramural Research, United States
16 figures, 6 tables and 7 additional files

Figures

Number of funded RPGs and RPG Principal Investigators (panel A) and inflationary indices (panel B) by fiscal year.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013). Indices shown in Panel B for fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024 are projected and therefore diplayed with thinner dotted lines.

Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) indirect costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

TThe vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Mean (panel A) and median (panel B) nominal and real (BRDPI-adjusted in 2021 dollars) costs for NIH-funded R01-equivalent awards, FY1998 to FY2021.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers, of box plots shown in Appendix 1—figure 2.

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. Panel A is based on untransformed real costs, while Panel B is based on log-10 transformed real costs. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Trends in solicited and unsolicited RPGs FY1998 to FY2021.

(A): Log-transformed costs according to NIH solicitation. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. (B): Percent of RPG projects and percent of RPG funding going to solicited awards. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers of box plots showing distribution of costs of unsolicited RPG awards (Appendix 1—figure 4).

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. Panel A is based on untransformed real costs, while Panel B is based on log-10 transformed real costs. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Whisker ranges, that is the distance between the tips of upper and lower whiskers of box plots showing distribution of costs of solicited RPG awards (Appendix 1—figure 4).

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. Panel A is based on untransformed real costs, while Panel B is based on log-10 transformed real costs. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Actual and random-forest regression log-transformed costs for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 1
Number of funded R01-equivalent awards by fiscal year.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 2
Box plot distributions of total costs (panel A) and log-transformed costs (panel B) for NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The diamonds refer to mean values. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted.

Appendix 1—figure 3
Distribution of total funds to the top and bottom centiles (A) and deciles (B) of NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 4
Box plot distributions of log-transformed costs for unsolicited (panel A) and solicited (panel B) NIH-funded RPGs, FY1998 to FY2021.

The diamonds refer to mean values. Y-axes are similarly scaled for easier comparison. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted.

Appendix 1—figure 5
Trends in R21 and R03 projects and funding FY1998 to FY2021.

(A): Costs according to R21 and R03 projects versus of all others. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. (B): Percent of RPG projects and percent of RPG funding going to R21 and R03 projects. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Appendix 1—figure 6
Trends in costs for RPGs involving and not involving clinical trials FY2010 to FY2021.

(A): Log-transformed costs according to clinical trials for NIH-funded RPGs, FY2010 to FY2021. (B): Box-plot distributions of log-transformed total costs for NIH-funded RPGs supporting clinical trials, FY2010 to FY2021. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted.

Appendix 1—figure 7
Trends in funding and costs for RPGs according to whether projects did or did not involve animal models and / or human participants FY1998 to FY2021.

(A): Log-transformed costs of NIH-funded RPGs according to involvement of human participants and/or animal models, FY1998 to FY2021. All costs are FY2021 BRDPI-adjusted. (B): Proportion of RPG-funding going to different types of projects according to involvement of human participants and/or animal models, FY1998 to FY2021. The vertical dotted lines refer to the beginning and end of the NIH budget-doubling (FY1998 and FY2003) and the year of budget sequestration (FY2013).

Tables

Table 1
Characteristics of RPGs in selected fiscal years.
Characteristic19982003201320192021
Total N (%)26882 (15.5)35513 (20.5)33047 (19.1)38241 (22.1)39513 (22.8)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)Mean (SD)0.53 (0.58)0.61 (0.76)0.52 (0.70)0.56 (0.88)0.57 (0.90)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPIMean (SD)5.63 (0.27)5.69 (0.26)5.62 (0.25)5.64 (0.27)5.65 (0.26)
Indirect Costs ($M BRDPI)Mean (SD)0.17 (0.17)0.19 (0.19)0.16 (0.16)0.17 (0.22)0.17 (0.21)
UnsolicitedYes21905 (81.5)25913 (73.0)23300 (70.5)24153 (63.2)23471 (59.4)
R01-EquivalentYes21543 (80.1)30124 (84.8)26199 (79.3)29341 (76.7)31258 (79.1)
R21 or R03Yes1424 (5.3)3920 (11.0)4805 (14.5)5478 (14.3)4949 (12.5)
Program GrantYes811 (3.0)984 (2.8)595 (1.8)374 (1.0)328 (0.8)
Cooperative AgreementYes623 (2.3)1493 (4.2)1709 (5.2)2437 (6.4)2404 (6.1)
Costs > $5 million BRDPIYes38 (0.1)102 (0.3)70 (0.2)140 (0.4)135 (0.3)
Clinical TrialYes2389 (7.2)3706 (9.7)4176 (10.6)
Human or AnimalNeither5715 (21.3)6799 (19.1)6197 (18.8)7207 (18.8)7627 (19.3)
Animal11357 (42.2)14877 (41.9)14842 (44.9)16231 (42.4)16633 (42.1)
Human7063 (26.3)10529 (29.6)9424 (28.5)11275 (29.5)11820 (29.9)
Both2747 (10.2)3308 (9.3)2584 (7.8)3528 (9.2)3433 (8.7)
Organization TypeInstitute of Higher Education22005 (81.9)28911 (81.4)27041 (81.8)31434 (82.2)32564 (82.4)
Research Organization2287 (8.5)3105 (8.7)2626 (7.9)2634 (6.9)2598 (6.6)
Independent Hospital2097 (7.8)2634 (7.4)2641 (8.0)3367 (8.8)3495 (8.8)
Other493 (1.8)863 (2.4)739 (2.2)806 (2.1)856 (2.2)
  1. RPG = Research Project Grant. BRDPI = Biomedical Research andDevelopment Price Index. All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, based on 2021 dollars).

Table 2
Characteristics of R01 equivalent grants in selected fiscal years.
Characteristic19982003201320192021
Total N (%)21543 (15.6)30124 (21.8)26199 (18.9)29341 (21.2)31258 (22.6)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)Mean (SD)0.53 (0.48)0.60 (0.70)0.52 (0.48)0.56 (0.52)0.56 (0.50)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPIMean (SD)5.67 (0.19)5.72 (0.20)5.66 (0.18)5.69 (0.19)5.70 (0.19)
Nominal Direct Costs ($M)Mean (SD)0.19 (0.20)0.25 (0.36)0.30 (0.35)0.37 (0.41)0.39 (0.41)
Nominal Direct Costs $250 K or LessYes18962 (88.0)23701 (78.7)16288 (62.2)11824 (40.3)10351 (33.1)
Nominal Direct Costs $500 K or MoreYes485 (2.3)1243 (4.1)1652 (6.3)3625 (12.4)4450 (14.2)
Indirect Costs ($M BRDPI)Mean (SD)0.17 (0.12)0.19 (0.15)0.16 (0.10)0.17 (0.13)0.18 (0.12)
UnsolicitedYes18445 (85.6)24337 (80.8)19873 (75.9)20642 (70.4)20637 (66.0)
Costs > $5 million BRDPIYes23 (0.1)69 (0.2)33 (0.1)41 (0.1)47 (0.2)
Clinical TrialYes1818 (6.9)2581 (8.8)3046 (9.7)
Human or AnimalNeither4612 (21.4)5923 (19.7)4830 (18.4)5299 (18.1)5773 (18.5)
Animal9331 (43.3)12966 (43.0)12209 (46.6)12991 (44.3)13621 (43.6)
Human5535 (25.7)8632 (28.7)7110 (27.1)8207 (28.0)9023 (28.9)
Both2065 (9.6)2603 (8.6)2050 (7.8)2844 (9.7)2841 (9.1)
Organization TypeInstitute of Higher Education17646 (81.9)24616 (81.7)21461 (81.9)24119 (82.2)25811 (82.6)
Research Organization1814 (8.4)2567 (8.5)2068 (7.9)2006 (6.8)2007 (6.4)
Independent Hospital1679 (7.8)2218 (7.4)2076 (7.9)2597 (8.9)2784 (8.9)
Other404 (1.9)723 (2.4)594 (2.3)619 (2.1)656 (2.1)
  1. BRDPI = Biomedical Research and Development Price Index.All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, based on 2021 dollars).

Table 3
Characteristics of FY2021 and FY2010 RPGs according to solicitation status.
CharacteristicSolicited 2021Unsolicited 2021Solicited 2010Unsolicited 2010
Total N (%)16042 (40.6)23471 (59.4)9697 (28.0)24986 (72.0)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)Mean (SD)0.71 (1.36)0.48 (0.31)0.65 (1.28)0.52 (0.47)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPIMean (SD)5.69 (0.33)5.63 (0.20)5.65 (0.35)5.66 (0.20)
R01-EquivalentYes10621 (66.2)20637 (87.9)6677 (68.9)22196 (88.8)
R21 or R03Yes2750 (17.1)2199 (9.4)2248 (23.2)1857 (7.4)
Costs > $5 million BRDPIYes121 (0.8)14 (0.1)55 (0.6)32 (0.1)
Cooperative AgreementYes2327 (14.5)77 (0.3)1478 (15.2)208 (0.8)
Clinical TrialYes3104 (19.3)1072 (4.6)1335 (13.8)1067 (4.3)
Human or AnimalNeither3407 (21.2)4220 (18.0)1632 (16.8)5096 (20.4)
Animal4579 (28.5)12054 (51.4)3151 (32.5)12696 (50.8)
Human6823 (42.5)4997 (21.3)4287 (44.2)5347 (21.4)
Both1233 (7.7)2200 (9.4)627 (6.5)1847 (7.4)
Organization TypeInstitute of Higher Education12983 (80.9)19581 (83.4)7662 (79.0)20848 (83.4)
Research Organization1214 (7.6)1384 (5.9)902 (9.3)1836 (7.3)
Independent Hospital1419 (8.8)2076 (8.8)824 (8.5)1824 (7.3)
Other426 (2.7)430 (1.8)309 (3.2)478 (1.9)
  1. RPG = Research Project Grant. BRDPI = Biomedical Research and Development Price Index. All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, basedon 2021 dollars).

Table 4
Characteristics of FY2021 and FY2010 R01 equivalent grant awards according to solicitation status.
CharacteristicSolicited 2021Unsolicited 2021Solicited 2010Unsolicited 2010
Total N (%)10621 (34.0)20637 (66.0)6677 (23.1)22,196 (76.9)
Total Costs ($M BRDPI)Mean (SD)0.67 (0.73)0.51 (0.30)0.74 (1.19)0.50 (0.38)
Log-10 Total Costs BRDPIMean (SD)5.74 (0.24)5.67 (0.15)5.75 (0.27)5.67 (0.15)
Nominal Direct Costs ($M)Mean (SD)0.47 (0.62)0.34 (0.23)0.42 (0.78)0.27 (0.26)
Nominal Direct Costs $250 K or LessYes3049 (28.7)7302 (35.4)3121 (46.7)15,702 (70.7)
Nominal Direct Costs $500 K or MoreYes2460 (23.2)1990 (9.6)1191 (17.8)832 (3.7)
Costs > $5 million BRDPIYes35 (0.3)12 (0.1)44 (0.7)26 (0.1)
Clinical TrialYes2126 (20.0)920 (4.5)976 (14.6)927 (4.2)
Human or AnimalNeither2337 (22.0)3436 (16.6)1017 (15.2)4525 (20.4)
Animal2902 (27.3)10719 (51.9)2202 (33.0)11,451 (51.6)
Human4656 (43.8)4367 (21.2)3055 (45.8)4686 (21.1)
Both726 (6.8)2115 (10.2)403 (6.0)1534 (6.9)
Organization TypeInstitute of Higher Education8650 (81.4)17161 (83.2)5259 (78.8)18,519 (83.4)
Research Organization791 (7.4)1216 (5.9)632 (9.5)1639 (7.4)
Independent Hospital904 (8.5)1880 (9.1)579 (8.7)1604 (7.2)
Other276 (2.6)380 (1.8)207 (3.1)434 (2.0)
  1. BRDPI = BiomedicalResearch and Development Price Index. All BRDPI-adjusted costs are based on an FY2021 reference (in other words, based on 2021dollars).

Appendix 1—table 1
Linear Regression Models for log-10 transformed BRDPI-adjusted (or real) total costs of RPGs funded from FY1998 to FY2021.

Values shown for each variable are regression coefficients (standard errors). Model 1 considers time (fiscal year) only, while Model 2 factors in other variables. Model 1 explained only 0.6% of total variance, while Model 2 explained 47% of variance. Regression diagnostics indicated poor fit due largely to fat tails, which were present even after log-10 transformation. Table constructed using the R package texreg; see Leifeld, 2013, Journal of Statistical Software, 55(8), 1–24.

Model 1Model 2
Intercept5.629(0.002)***5.477(0.002)***
FY19990.013(0.002)***0.011(0.002)***
FY20000.033(0.002)***0.028(0.002)***
FY20010.049(0.002)***0.045(0.002)***
FY20020.059(0.002)***0.059(0.002)***
FY20030.062(0.002)***0.067(0.002)***
FY20040.061(0.002)***0.071(0.002)***
FY20050.054(0.002)***0.066(0.002)***
FY20060.035(0.002)***0.048(0.002)***
FY20070.020(0.002)***0.037(0.002)***
FY20080.008(0.002)***0.028(0.002)***
FY20090.018(0.002)***0.033(0.002)***
FY20100.023(0.002)***0.036(0.002)***
FY20110.012(0.002)***0.047(0.002)***
FY20120.010(0.002)***0.049(0.002)***
FY2013-0.010(0.002)***0.031(0.002)***
FY20140.004(0.002)0.045(0.002)***
FY20150.002(0.002)0.046(0.002)***
FY20160.008(0.002)***0.053(0.002)***
FY20170.013(0.002)***0.054(0.002)***
FY20180.012(0.002)***0.052(0.002)***
FY20190.012(0.002)***0.055(0.002)***
FY20200.023(0.002)***0.063(0.002)***
FY20210.026(0.002)***0.061(0.002)***
Unsolicited before 2010-0.003(0.001)***
Unsolicited after 2010-0.026(0.001)***
R01 Equivalent0.115(0.001)***
Clinical Trial0.040(0.001)***
Human Only0.030(0.001)***
Animal Only0.080(0.001)***
Both Human and Animal0.067(0.001)***
Research Organization0.056(0.001)***
Indepdent Hospital0.034(0.001)***
Other Organization0.029(0.001)***
Cooperative Agreement0.263(0.001)***
Program Grant0.741(0.002)***
R21 or R03-0.278(0.001)***
R20.0060.471
Adj. R20.0060.471
Num. obs.827815827815
p<0.001; p<0.01; p<0.05.
  1. ∗∗∗p < 0.001;∗∗p < 0.01;p < 0.05.

Appendix 1—table 2
Results of random forest regression for log-10 transformed BRDPI-adjusted (or real) total costs of a 1% random sample of RPGs funded from FY1998 to FY2021.

A model that consider fiscal year as the sole variable only explained 0.3% of total variance. A model that included the 10 variables listed in the table explained 47% of the total variance. The variable importance reflects the deterioration in prediction error when the value for a variable is determined randomly, as opposed to its actual value. Variables reflecting compositional factors (like the type of award mechanism) were much more important than time (that is fiscal year) in predicting real total grant costs.

VariableImportance
Program Grant0.2615546
R21 or R030.0990313
Cooperative Agreement0.0954948
R01 Equivalent0.0599555
Fiscal Year0.0093220
Organizational Type0.0091677
Human0.0070634
Unsolicited0.0037442
Clinical Trial0.0034817
Animal0.0030754

Additional files

MDAR checklist
https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-mdarchecklist1-v3.docx
Source data 1

BRDPI_change_2021 xlsx; data file with values for the Biomedical Research and Development Price Index (BRDPI) used to generate Figure 1, panel B.

https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data1-v3.xlsx
Source data 2

GDP_change_2021 xlsx; data file with value for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index used to generate Figure 1, panel B.

https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data2-v3.xlsx
Source data 3

rpg_anon_id RData; anonymized source data (in R format) used to generate all text, tables, and figures (except Figure 1, panel B and the red line with circles in Figure 1, panel A) in the main manuscript and appendix.

https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data3-v3.zip
Source data 4

awardee_summary RData; source data (in R format) used to generate the red line (with circles) in Figure 1, panel A.

https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-data4-v3.zip
Source code 1

RPG inflation 1 16 23 Rmd: R markdown file which contains a data dictionary and code used to generate all text, tables, and figures in the main manuscript.

https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-code1-v3.zip
Source code 2

RPG inflation 1 16 23 appendix Rmd: R markdown file which contains a data dictionary and code used to generate all text, tables, and figures in the appendix.

https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/84245/elife-84245-code2-v3.zip

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  1. Michael S Lauer
  2. Joy Wang
  3. Deepshikha Roychowdhury
(2023)
National Institutes of Health research project grant inflation 1998 to 2021
eLife 12:e84245.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.84245