A computational method for predicting the most likely evolutionary trajectories in the step-wise accumulation of resistance mutations
Abstract
Pathogen evolution of drug resistance often occurs in a stepwise manner via the accumulation of multiple mutations that in combination have a non-additive impact on fitness, a phenomenon known as epistasis. The evolution of resistance via the accumulation of point mutations in the DHFR genes of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf ) and Plasmodium vivax (Pv) has been studied extensively and multiple studies have shown epistatic interactions between these mutations determine the accessible evolutionary trajectories to highly resistant multiple mutations. Here, we simulated these evolutionary trajectories using a model of molecular evolution, parameterized using Rosetta Flex ddG predictions, where selection acts to reduce the target-drug binding affinity. We observe strong agreement with pathways determined using experimentally measured IC50 values of pyrimethamine binding, which suggests binding affinity is strongly predictive of resistance and epistasis in binding affinity strongly influences the order of fixation of resistance mutations. We also infer pathways directly from the frequency of mutations found in isolate data, and observe remarkable agreement with the most likely pathways predicted by our mechanistic model, as well as those determined experimentally. This suggests mutation frequency data can be used to intuitively infer evolutionary pathways, provided sufficient sampling of the population.
Data availability
Code, Rosetta Flex ddG predictions, structural models and isolate mutation frequency data deposited in Zenodo at 10.5281/zenodo.7082168
Article and author information
Author details
Funding
Medical Research Council (MR/T000171/1)
- Ruth Charlotte Eccleston
Medical Research Council (MR/R025576/1)
- Susana Campino
Medical Research Council (MR/R020973/1)
- Susana Campino
British Council (261868591)
- Emilia Manko
Medical Research Council (MR/T000171/1)
- Nicholas Furnham
Medical Research Council (MR/M01360X/1)
- Taane G Clark
Medical Research Council (MR/N010469/1)
- Taane G Clark
Medical Research Council (MR/R025576/1)
- Taane G Clark
Medical Research Council (MR/R020973/1)
- Taane G Clark
Medical Research Council (MR/T000171/1)
- Taane G Clark
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/R013063/1)
- Taane G Clark
Medical Research Council (MR/M01360X/1)
- Susana Campino
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Copyright
© 2023, Eccleston et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
Metrics
-
- 717
- views
-
- 117
- downloads
-
- 2
- citations
Views, downloads and citations are aggregated across all versions of this paper published by eLife.
Download links
Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)
Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)
Cite this article (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)
Further reading
-
- Developmental Biology
- Evolutionary Biology
Seahorses, pipefishes, and seadragons are fishes from the family Syngnathidae that have evolved extraordinary traits including male pregnancy, elongated snouts, loss of teeth, and dermal bony armor. The developmental genetic and cellular changes that led to the evolution of these traits are largely unknown. Recent syngnathid genome assemblies revealed suggestive gene content differences and provided the opportunity for detailed genetic analyses. We created a single-cell RNA sequencing atlas of Gulf pipefish embryos to understand the developmental basis of four traits: derived head shape, toothlessness, dermal armor, and male pregnancy. We completed marker gene analyses, built genetic networks, and examined the spatial expression of select genes. We identified osteochondrogenic mesenchymal cells in the elongating face that express regulatory genes bmp4, sfrp1a, and prdm16. We found no evidence for tooth primordia cells, and we observed re-deployment of osteoblast genetic networks in developing dermal armor. Finally, we found that epidermal cells expressed nutrient processing and environmental sensing genes, potentially relevant for the brooding environment. The examined pipefish evolutionary innovations are composed of recognizable cell types, suggesting that derived features originate from changes within existing gene networks. Future work addressing syngnathid gene networks across multiple stages and species is essential for understanding how the novelties of these fish evolved.
-
- Evolutionary Biology
- Genetics and Genomics
Copy number variants (CNVs) are an important source of genetic variation underlying rapid adaptation and genome evolution. Whereas point mutation rates vary with genomic location and local DNA features, the role of genome architecture in the formation and evolutionary dynamics of CNVs is poorly understood. Previously, we found the GAP1 gene in Saccharomyces cerevisiae undergoes frequent amplification and selection in glutamine-limitation. The gene is flanked by two long terminal repeats (LTRs) and proximate to an origin of DNA replication (autonomously replicating sequence, ARS), which likely promote rapid GAP1 CNV formation. To test the role of these genomic elements on CNV-mediated adaptive evolution, we evolved engineered strains lacking either the adjacent LTRs, ARS, or all elements in glutamine-limited chemostats. Using a CNV reporter system and neural network simulation-based inference (nnSBI) we quantified the formation rate and fitness effect of CNVs for each strain. Removal of local DNA elements significantly impacts the fitness effect of GAP1 CNVs and the rate of adaptation. In 177 CNV lineages, across all four strains, between 26% and 80% of all GAP1 CNVs are mediated by Origin Dependent Inverted Repeat Amplification (ODIRA) which results from template switching between the leading and lagging strand during DNA synthesis. In the absence of the local ARS, distal ones mediate CNV formation via ODIRA. In the absence of local LTRs, homologous recombination can mediate gene amplification following de novo retrotransposon events. Our study reveals that template switching during DNA replication is a prevalent source of adaptive CNVs.