Region of attainable redaction, an extension of ellipse of insignificance analysis for gauging impacts of data redaction in dichotomous outcome trials
Abstract
In biomedical science, it is a reality that many published results do not withstand deeper investigation, and there is growing concern over a replicability crisis in science. Recently, Ellipse of Insignificance (EOI) analysis was introduced as a tool to allow researchers to gauge the robustness of reported results in dichotomous outcome design trials, giving precise deterministic values for the degree of miscoding between events and non-events tolerable simultaneously in both control and experimental arms1 (Grimes 2022). While this is useful for situations where potential miscoding might transpire, it does not account for situations where apparently significant findings might result from accidental or deliberate data redaction in either the control or experimental arms of an experiment, or from missing data or systematic redaction. To address these scenarios, we introduce Region of Attainable Redaction (ROAR), a tool that extends EOI analysis to account for situations of potential data redaction. This produces a bounded cubic curve rather than an ellipse, and we outline how this can be used to identify potential redaction through an approach analogous to EOI. Applications are illustrated, and source code including a web-based implementation that performs EOI and ROAR analysis in tandem for dichotomous outcome trials is provided.
Data availability
All data is available in the paper and at github: https://github.com/drg85/EOIROAR_codeWeb implementation is available at: https://drg85.shinyapps.io/EOIROAR/
Article and author information
Author details
Funding
Wellcome Trust (214461/A/18/Z)
- David Robert Grimes
Wellcome Trust (214461/A/18/Z)
- David Robert Grimes
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Copyright
© 2024, Grimes
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Further reading
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- Epidemiology and Global Health
Background:
The associations of age at diagnosis of breast cancer with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) remain unexamined. Addressing this problem could promote understanding of the cardiovascular impact of breast cancer.
Methods:
Data were obtained from the UK Biobank. Information on the diagnosis of breast cancer, MI, and HF was collected at baseline and follow-ups (median = 12.8 years). The propensity score matching method and Cox proportional hazards models were employed.
Results:
A total of 251,277 female participants (mean age: 56.8 ± 8.0 years), of whom 16,241 had breast cancer, were included. Among breast cancer participants, younger age at diagnosis (per 10-year decrease) was significantly associated with elevated risks of MI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19–1.56, p<0.001) and HF (HR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.18–1.46, p<0.001). After propensity score matching, breast cancer patients with younger diagnosis age had significantly higher risks of MI and HF than controls without breast cancer.
Conclusions:
Younger age at diagnosis of breast cancer was associated with higher risks of incident MI and HF, underscoring the necessity to pay additional attention to the cardiovascular health of breast cancer patients diagnosed at younger age to conduct timely interventions to attenuate the subsequent risks of incident cardiovascular diseases.
Funding:
This study was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82373665 and 81974490), the Nonprofit Central Research Institute Fund of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (2021-RC330-001), and the 2022 China Medical Board-open competition research grant (22-466).
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- Epidemiology and Global Health
- Genetics and Genomics
Background:
Maternal smoking has been linked to adverse health outcomes in newborns but the extent to which it impacts newborn health has not been quantified through an aggregated cord blood DNA methylation (DNAm) score. Here, we examine the feasibility of using cord blood DNAm scores leveraging large external studies as discovery samples to capture the epigenetic signature of maternal smoking and its influence on newborns in White European and South Asian populations.
Methods:
We first examined the association between individual CpGs and cigarette smoking during pregnancy, and smoking exposure in two White European birth cohorts (n=744). Leveraging established CpGs for maternal smoking, we constructed a cord blood epigenetic score of maternal smoking that was validated in one of the European-origin cohorts (n=347). This score was then tested for association with smoking status, secondary smoking exposure during pregnancy, and health outcomes in offspring measured after birth in an independent White European (n=397) and a South Asian birth cohort (n=504).
Results:
Several previously reported genes for maternal smoking were supported, with the strongest and most consistent association signal from the GFI1 gene (6 CpGs with p<5 × 10-5). The epigenetic maternal smoking score was strongly associated with smoking status during pregnancy (OR = 1.09 [1.07, 1.10], p=5.5 × 10-33) and more hours of self-reported smoking exposure per week (1.93 [1.27, 2.58], p=7.8 × 10-9) in White Europeans. However, it was not associated with self-reported exposure (p>0.05) among South Asians, likely due to a lack of smoking in this group. The same score was consistently associated with a smaller birth size (–0.37±0.12 cm, p=0.0023) in the South Asian cohort and a lower birth weight (–0.043±0.013 kg, p=0.0011) in the combined cohorts.
Conclusions:
This cord blood epigenetic score can help identify babies exposed to maternal smoking and assess its long-term impact on growth. Notably, these results indicate a consistent association between the DNAm signature of maternal smoking and a small body size and low birth weight in newborns, in both White European mothers who exhibited some amount of smoking and in South Asian mothers who themselves were not active smokers.
Funding:
This study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Metabolomics Team Grant: MWG-146332.