Figure 4. | Publication bias and the canonization of false facts

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Research: Publication bias and the canonization of false facts

Figure 4.

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University of Copenhagen, Denmark; University of Washington, United States; North Carolina State University, United States
Figure 4.
Download figureOpen in new tabFigure 4. Publishing negative outcomes is essential for rejecting false claims.

Probability that a false claim is incorrectly canonized, as a function of the negative publication rate. Throughout, initial belief is q0=0.5, and individual data series show false positive rates α=0.05 (yellow), 0.10,,0.25 (red). Top row: weak evidentiary standards τ0=0.1 and τ1=0.9. Panel A: false negative rate β=0.2. Panel B: β=0.4. Panels CD: similar to panels AB, with more demanding evidentiary standards τ0=0.001 and τ1=0.999.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21451.005