Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997—2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Understanding the interplay between the HIV reservoir and the host immune system may yield insights into HIV persistence during antiretroviral therapy (ART) and inform strategies for a cure. Here, we applied machine learning (ML) approaches to cross-sectional high-parameter HIV reservoir and immunology data in order to characterize host–reservoir associations and generate new hypotheses about HIV reservoir biology. High-dimensional immunophenotyping, quantification of HIV-specific T cell responses, and measurement of genetically intact and total HIV proviral DNA frequencies were performed on peripheral blood samples from 115 people with HIV (PWH) on long-term ART. Analysis demonstrated that both intact and total proviral DNA frequencies were positively correlated with T cell activation and exhaustion. Years of ART and select bifunctional HIV-specific CD4 T cell responses were negatively correlated with the percentage of intact proviruses. A leave-one-covariate-out inference approach identified specific HIV reservoir and clinical–demographic parameters, such as age and biological sex, that were particularly important in predicting immunophenotypes. Overall, immune parameters were more strongly associated with total HIV proviral frequencies than intact proviral frequencies. Uniquely, however, expression of the IL-7 receptor alpha chain (CD127) on CD4 T cells was more strongly correlated with the intact reservoir. Unsupervised dimension reduction analysis identified two main clusters of PWH with distinct immune and reservoir characteristics. Using reservoir correlates identified in these initial analyses, decision tree methods were employed to visualize relationships among multiple immune and clinical–demographic parameters and the HIV reservoir. Finally, using random splits of our data as training-test sets, ML algorithms predicted with approximately 70% accuracy whether a given participant had qualitatively high or low levels of total or intact HIV DNA . The techniques described here may be useful for assessing global patterns within the increasingly high-dimensional data used in HIV reservoir and other studies of complex biology.