Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment
Abstract
The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk.
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Funding
National Health and Medical Research Council (12/1/06/24/5793)
- Sebastian Maurer-Stroh
Wellcome (200861/Z/16/Z)
- Steven Riley
Medical Research Council (MR/J008761/1)
- Steven Riley
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (MIDAS U01 GM110721-01)
- Steven Riley
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (VIDI grant 91715372)
- Sander Herfst
Agency for Science, Technology and Research (12/1/06/24/5793)
- Sebastian Maurer-Stroh
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (Contract HHSN272201400006C))
- Charles J Russell
National Institutes of Health (R01 GM088344)
- Claus O Wilke
National Institutes of Health (R01 GM098304)
- Peter M Kasson
Royal Society (University Research Fellowship)
- Colin A Russell
Medical Research Council (G0801822)
- Pablo R Murcia
Wellcome (Project 093488/Z/10/Z)
- Steven Riley
Wellcome (200187/Z/15/Z)
- Steven Riley
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (MIDAS Center of Excellence Cooperative Agreement U54GM088558)
- Marc Lipsitch
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Discovery Grant (355837-2013))
- Catherine AA Beauchemin
Ministry of Research and Innovation (Early Researcher Award Award (ER13-09-040))
- Catherine AA Beauchemin
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Copyright
This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
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