Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
- University of Oxford, United Kingdom
- FIOCRUZ, Brazil
- Université de Montpellier, France
- Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Brazil
- University of Exeter, United Kingdom
Abstract
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of in this urban setting.
Article and author information
Author details
Nuno Rodrigues Faria
Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas
Funding
European Research Council (614725-PATHPHYLODYN)
- Oliver G Pybus
Royal Society
- Mario Recker
Wellcome Trust & Royal Society (204311/Z/16/Z)
- Nuno Rodrigues Faria
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
- Ben Lambert
European Research Council (268904 - DIVERSITY)
- José Lourenço
- Andrew Walker
International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats Program-2 (AID-OAA-A-14-00102)
- Moritz UG Kraemer
Labex EpiGenMed (ANR-10-LABX-12-01)
- Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Reviewing Editor
- Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, United Kingdom
Publication history
- Received: June 21, 2017
- Accepted: September 4, 2017
- Accepted Manuscript published: September 9, 2017 (version 1)
- Version of Record published: October 12, 2017 (version 2)
Copyright
© 2017, Lourenço et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
eLife 6:e29820.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.29820
Further reading
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- Epidemiology and Global Health
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- Epidemiology and Global Health
To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have had less of a societal impact, but comparable epidemiological impact. Here, using the first COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands as a case in point, we address this issue by developing a high-resolution analysis framework that uses a demographically stratified population and a spatially explicit, dynamic, individual contact-pattern based epidemiology, calibrated to hospital admissions data and mobility trends extracted from mobile phone signals and Google. We demonstrate how a subnational approach could achieve similar level of epidemiological control in terms of hospital admissions, while some parts of the country could stay open for a longer period. Our framework is exportable to other countries and settings, and may be used to develop policies on subnational approach as a better strategic choice for controlling future epidemics.
