1. Epidemiology and Global Health
  2. Microbiology and Infectious Disease
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Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

  1. José Lourenço  Is a corresponding author
  2. Maricelia Maia de Lima
  3. Nuno Rodrigues Faria
  4. Andrew Walker
  5. Moritz UG Kraemer
  6. Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas
  7. Ben Lambert
  8. Erenilde Marques de Cerqueira
  9. Oliver G Pybus
  10. Luiz CJ Alcantara
  11. Mario Recker
  1. University of Oxford, United Kingdom
  2. FIOCRUZ, Brazil
  3. Université de Montpellier, France
  4. Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Brazil
  5. University of Exeter, United Kingdom
Research Article
  • Cited 37
  • Views 4,212
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Cite this article as: eLife 2017;6:e29820 doi: 10.7554/eLife.29820

Abstract

The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of in this urban setting.

Article and author information

Author details

  1. José Lourenço

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    For correspondence
    jose.lourenco@zoo.ox.ac.uk
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-9318-2581
  2. Maricelia Maia de Lima

    Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCRUZ, Salvador, Brazil
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  3. Nuno Rodrigues Faria

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0001-8839-2798
  4. Andrew Walker

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  5. Moritz UG Kraemer

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0001-8838-7147
  6. Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas

    Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMI 233, INSERM U1175, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0001-9928-3968
  7. Ben Lambert

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  8. Erenilde Marques de Cerqueira

    Department of Health, Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, Brazil
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  9. Oliver G Pybus

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  10. Luiz CJ Alcantara

    Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCRUZ, Salvador, Brazil
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
  11. Mario Recker

    Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    ORCID icon "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0001-9489-1315

Funding

European Research Council (614725-PATHPHYLODYN)

  • Oliver G Pybus

Royal Society

  • Mario Recker

Wellcome Trust & Royal Society (204311/Z/16/Z)

  • Nuno Rodrigues Faria

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

  • Ben Lambert

European Research Council (268904 - DIVERSITY)

  • José Lourenço
  • Andrew Walker

International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats Program-2 (AID-OAA-A-14-00102)

  • Moritz UG Kraemer

Labex EpiGenMed (ANR-10-LABX-12-01)

  • Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.

Reviewing Editor

  1. Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, United Kingdom

Publication history

  1. Received: June 21, 2017
  2. Accepted: September 4, 2017
  3. Accepted Manuscript published: September 9, 2017 (version 1)
  4. Version of Record published: October 12, 2017 (version 2)

Copyright

© 2017, Lourenço et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

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Further reading

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    2. Epidemiology and Global Health
    Marie C Russell et al.
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    Predator-prey interactions influence prey traits through both consumptive and non-consumptive effects, and variation in these traits can shape vector-borne disease dynamics. Meta-analysis methods were employed to generate predation effect sizes by different categories of predators and mosquito prey. This analysis showed that multiple families of aquatic predators are effective in consumptively reducing mosquito survival, and that the survival of Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex mosquitoes is negatively impacted by consumptive effects of predators. Mosquito larval size was found to play a more important role in explaining the heterogeneity of consumptive effects from predators than mosquito genus. Mosquito survival and body size were reduced by non-consumptive effects of predators, but development time was not significantly impacted. In addition, Culex vectors demonstrated predator avoidance behavior during oviposition. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that predators limit disease transmission by reducing both vector survival and vector size, and that associations between drought and human West Nile virus cases could be driven by the vector behavior of predator avoidance during oviposition. These findings are likely to be useful to infectious disease modelers who rely on vector traits as predictors of transmission.

    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    Andria Mousa et al.
    Research Article Updated

    Background:

    Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focused on high-income settings.

    Methods:

    Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys, we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration, and whether physical) vary across income settings.

    Results:

    Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income strata on the frequency, duration, and type of contacts individuals made.

    Conclusions:

    These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens and the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions.

    Funding:

    This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).