The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of in this urban setting.
- Oliver G Pybus
- Mario Recker
- Nuno Rodrigues Faria
- Ben Lambert
- José Lourenço
- Andrew Walker
- Moritz UG Kraemer
- Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
- Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, United Kingdom
© 2017, Lourenço et al.
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