Predicting an individual’s cognitive traits or clinical condition using brain signals is a central goal in modern neuroscience. This is commonly done using either structural aspects, such as structural connectivity or cortical thickness, or aggregated measures of brain activity that average over time. But these approaches are missing a central aspect of brain function: the unique ways in which an individual’s brain activity unfolds over time. One reason why these dynamic patterns are not usually considered is that they have to be described by complex, high-dimensional models; and it is unclear how best to use these models for prediction. We here propose an approach that describes dynamic functional connectivity and amplitude patterns using a Hidden Markov model (HMM) and combines it with the Fisher kernel, which can be used to predict individual traits. The Fisher kernel is constructed from the HMM in a mathematically principled manner, thereby preserving the structure of the underlying model. We show here, in fMRI data, that the HMM-Fisher kernel approach is accurate and reliable. We compare the Fisher kernel to other prediction methods, both time-varying and time-averaged functional connectivity-based models. Our approach leverages information about an individual’s time-varying amplitude and functional connectivity for prediction and has broad applications in cognitive neuroscience and personalised medicine.

Non-linear summation of synaptic inputs to the dendrites of pyramidal neurons has been proposed to increase the computation capacity of neurons through coincidence detection, signal amplification, and additional logic operations such as XOR. Supralinear dendritic integration has been documented extensively in principal neurons, mediated by several voltage-dependent conductances. It has also been reported in parvalbumin-positive hippocampal basket cells, in dendrites innervated by feedback excitatory synapses. Whether other interneurons, which support feed-forward or feedback inhibition of principal neuron dendrites, also exhibit local non-linear integration of synaptic excitation is not known. Here, we use patch-clamp electrophysiology, and two-photon calcium imaging and glutamate uncaging, to show that supralinear dendritic integration of near-synchronous spatially clustered glutamate-receptor mediated depolarization occurs in NDNF-positive neurogliaform cells and oriens-lacunosum moleculare interneurons in the mouse hippocampus. Supralinear summation was detected via recordings of somatic depolarizations elicited by uncaging of glutamate on dendritic fragments, and, in neurogliaform cells, by concurrent imaging of dendritic calcium transients. Supralinearity was abolished by blocking NMDA receptors (NMDARs) but resisted blockade of voltage-gated sodium channels. Blocking L-type calcium channels abolished supralinear calcium signalling but only had a minor effect on voltage supralinearity. Dendritic boosting of spatially clustered synaptic signals argues for previously unappreciated computational complexity in dendrite-projecting inhibitory cells of the hippocampus.