Mechanistic modeling in neuroscience aims to explain observed phenomena in terms of underlying causes. However, determining which model parameters agree with complex and stochastic neural data presents a significant challenge. We address this challenge with a machine learning tool which uses deep neural density estimators—trained using model simulations—to carry out Bayesian inference and retrieve the full space of parameters compatible with raw data or selected data features. Our method is scalable in parameters and data features and can rapidly analyze new data after initial training. We demonstrate the power and flexibility of our approach on receptive fields, ion channels, and Hodgkin–Huxley models. We also characterize the space of circuit configurations giving rise to rhythmic activity in the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion, and use these results to derive hypotheses for underlying compensation mechanisms. Our approach will help close the gap between data-driven and theory-driven models of neural dynamics.

The RAS-MAPK system plays an important role in regulating various cellular processes, including growth, differentiation, apoptosis, and transformation. Dysregulation of this system has been implicated in genetic diseases and cancers affecting diverse tissues. To better understand the regulation of this system, we employed information flow analysis based on transfer entropy (TE) between the activation dynamics of two key elements in cells stimulated with EGF: SOS, a guanine nucleotide exchanger for the small GTPase RAS, and RAF, a RAS effector serine/threonine kinase. TE analysis allows for model-free assessment of the timing, direction, and strength of the information flow regulating the system response. We detected significant amounts of TE in both directions between SOS and RAF, indicating feedback regulation. Importantly, the amount of TE did not simply follow the input dose or the intensity of the causal reaction, demonstrating the uniqueness of TE. TE analysis proposed regulatory networks containing multiple tracks and feedback loops and revealed temporal switching in the reaction pathway primarily responsible for reaction control. This proposal was confirmed by the effects of an MEK inhibitor on TE. Furthermore, TE analysis identified the functional disorder of a SOS mutation associated with Noonan syndrome, a human genetic disease, of which the pathogenic mechanism has not been precisely known yet. TE assessment holds significant promise as a model-free analysis method of reaction networks in molecular pharmacology and pathology.