Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previously immune individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that the temporal asynchrony between within-host virus exponential growth and antibody-mediated selection could limit within-host antigenic evolution. If selection for new antigenic variants acts principally at the point of initial virus inoculation, where small virus populations encounter well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously infected individuals, there can exist protection against reinfection that does not regularly produce observable new antigenic variants within individual infected hosts. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for how virus antigenic evolution can be highly selective at the global level but nearly neutral within host. They also suggest new avenues for improving influenza control.
- Colin A Russell
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
- Armita Nourmohammad, University of Washington, United States
- Received: August 14, 2020
- Accepted: November 4, 2020
- Accepted Manuscript published: November 11, 2020 (version 1)
© 2020, Morris et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)
Download citations (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)
Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)
Hosts and viruses are constantly evolving in response to each other: as a host attempts to suppress a virus, the virus attempts to evade and suppress the host’s immune system. Here, we describe the recurrent evolution of a virulent strain of a DNA virus, which infects multiple Drosophila species. Specifically, we identified two distinct viral types that differ 100-fold in viral titer in infected individuals, with similar differences observed in multiple species. Our analysis suggests that one of the viral types recurrently evolved at least four times in the past ~30,000 years, three times in Arizona and once in another geographically distinct species. This recurrent evolution may be facilitated by an effective mutation rate which increases as each prior mutation increases viral titer and effective population size. The higher titer viral type suppresses the host-immune system and an increased virulence compared to the low viral titer type.
Microbes are embedded in complex communities where they engage in a wide array of intra- and inter-specific interactions. The extent to which these interactions drive or impede microbiome diversity is not well understood. Historically, two contrasting hypotheses have been suggested to explain how species interactions could influence diversity. 'Ecological Controls' (EC) predicts a negative relationship, where the evolution or migration of novel types is constrained as niches become filled. In contrast, 'Diversity Begets Diversity' (DBD) predicts a positive relationship, with existing diversity promoting the accumulation of further diversity via niche construction and other interactions. Using high-throughput amplicon sequencing data from the Earth Microbiome Project, we provide evidence that DBD is strongest in low-diversity biomes, but weaker in more diverse biomes, consistent with biotic interactions initially favoring the accumulation of diversity (as predicted by DBD). However, as niches become increasingly filled, diversity hits a plateau (as predicted by EC).