Background: Diarrheal illness is a leading cause of antibiotic use for children in low- and middle-income countries. Determination of diarrhea etiology at the point-of-care without reliance on laboratory testing has the potential to reduce inappropriate antibiotic use.
Methods: This prospective observational study aimed to develop and externally validate the accuracy of a mobile software application ('App') for the prediction of viral-only etiology of acute diarrhea in children 0-59 months in Bangladesh and Mali. The App used a previously derived and internally validated model consisting of patient-specific ('present patient') clinical variables (age, blood in stool, vomiting, breastfeeding status, and mid-upper arm circumference) as well as location-specific viral diarrhea seasonality curves. The performance of additional models using the 'present patient' data combined with other external data sources including location-specific climate, data, recent patient data, and historical population-based prevalence were also evaluated in secondary analysis. Diarrhea etiology was determined with TaqMan Array Card using episode-specific attributable fraction (AFe) >0.5.
Results: Of 302 children with acute diarrhea enrolled, 199 had etiologies above the AFe threshold. Viral-only pathogens were detected in 22% of patients in Mali and 63% in Bangladesh. Rotavirus was the most common pathogen detected (16% Mali; 60% Bangladesh). The present patient + viral seasonality model had an AUC of 0.754 (0.665-0.843) for the sites combined, with calibration-in-the-large α=-0.393 (-0.455 - -0.331) and calibration slope β=1.287 (1.207 - 1.367). By site, the present patient + recent patient model performed best in Mali with an AUC of 0.783 (0.705 - 0.86); the present patient + viral seasonality model performed best in Bangladesh with AUC 0.710 (0.595 - 0.825).
Conclusion: The App accurately identified children with high likelihood of viral-only diarrhea etiology. Further studies to evaluate the App's potential use in diagnostic and antimicrobial stewardship are underway.
Funding: Funding for this study was provided through grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1198876) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI135114). Several investigators were also partially supported by a grant from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R01DK116163). This investigation was also supported by the University of Utah Population Health Research (PHR) Foundation, with funding in part from the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number UL1TR002538. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation of data, or in the writing or decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
The de-identified dataset is included as Supplementary File 5 and has been deposited on Dryad. The modeling code and additional files needed to run the code are deposited on GitHub at https://github.com/LeungLab/DiaPR_Phase1
Data from: Diarrhea Etiology Prediction Validation Dataset - Bangladesh and MaliDryad Digital Repository doi:10.5061/dryad.0rxwdbs19.
- Daniel T Leung
- Daniel T Leung
- Monique Gainey
- Ben J Brintz
- Eric J Nelson
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Human subjects: Informed consent was obtained from all study participants as described in Materials and Methods. Ethical approval was obtained from the icddr,b Ethical Review Committee (PR-19095), the University of Sciences, Techniques, and Technologies of Bamako Ethics Committee (2019-153), and the University of Utah Institutional Review Board (IRB_00121790).
- Joshua T Schiffer, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States
© 2022, Garbern et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
The role of schools in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is controversial, with some claiming they are an important driver of the pandemic and others arguing that transmission in schools is negligible. School cluster reports that have been collected in various jurisdictions are a source of data about transmission in schools. These reports consist of the name of a school, a date, and the number of students known to be infected. We provide a simple model for the frequency and size of clusters in this data, based on random arrivals of index cases at schools who then infect their classmates with a highly variable rate, fitting the overdispersion evident in the data. We fit our model to reports from four Canadian provinces, providing estimates of mean and dispersion for cluster size, as well as the distribution of the instantaneous transmission parameter β, whilst factoring in imperfect ascertainment. According to our model with parameters estimated from the data, in all four provinces (i) more than 65% of non-index cases occur in the 20% largest clusters, and (ii) reducing instantaneous transmission rate and the number of contacts a student has at any given time are effective in reducing the total number of cases, whereas strict bubbling (keeping contacts consistent over time) does not contribute much to reduce cluster sizes. We predict strict bubbling to be more valuable in scenarios with substantially higher transmission rates.
Associations between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and brain morphology have been reported, although with several inconsistencies. These may partly stem from confounding bias, which could distort associations and limit generalizability. We examined how associations between brain morphology and ADHD symptoms change with adjustments for potential confounders typically overlooked in the literature (aim 1), and for the intelligence quotient (IQ) and head motion, which are generally corrected for but play ambiguous roles (aim 2).
Participants were 10-year-old children from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (N = 7722) and Generation R (N = 2531) Studies. Cortical area, volume, and thickness were measured with MRI and ADHD symptoms with the Child Behavior Checklist. Surface-based cross-sectional analyses were run.
ADHD symptoms related to widespread cortical regions when solely adjusting for demographic factors. Additional adjustments for socioeconomic and maternal behavioral confounders (aim 1) generally attenuated associations, as cluster sizes halved and effect sizes substantially reduced. Cluster sizes further changed when including IQ and head motion (aim 2), however, we argue that adjustments might have introduced bias.
Careful confounder selection and control can help identify more robust and specific regions of associations for ADHD symptoms, across two cohorts. We provided guidance to minimizing confounding bias in psychiatric neuroimaging.
Authors are supported by an NWO-VICI grant (NWO-ZonMW: 016.VICI.170.200 to HT) for HT, LDA, SL, and the Sophia Foundation S18-20, and Erasmus University and Erasmus MC Fellowship for RLM.