1. Epidemiology and Global Health
  2. Microbiology and Infectious Disease
Download icon

Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus

  1. Jane P Messina  Is a corresponding author
  2. Moritz UG Kraemer
  3. Oliver J Brady
  4. David M Pigott
  5. Freya M Shearer
  6. Daniel J Weiss
  7. Nick Golding
  8. Corrine W Ruktanonchai
  9. Peter W Gething
  10. Emily Cohn
  11. John S Brownstein
  12. Kamran Khan
  13. Andrew J Tatem
  14. Thomas Jaenisch
  15. Christopher JL Murray
  16. Fatima Marinho
  17. Thomas W Scott
  18. Simon I Hay
  1. University of Oxford, United Kingdom
  2. University of Melbourne, United Kingdom
  3. University of Southampton, United Kingdom
  4. Harvard Medical School, United Kingdom
  5. Harvard Medical School, United States
  6. University of Toronto, Canada
  7. Heidelberg University Hospital, Germany
  8. University of Washington, Seattle, United States
  9. Ministry of Health Brazil, Brazil
  10. University of California Davis, United States
Research Article
  • Cited 176
  • Views 33,390
  • Annotations
Cite this article as: eLife 2016;5:e15272 doi: 10.7554/eLife.15272

Abstract

Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.

Article and author information

Author details

  1. Jane P Messina

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    For correspondence
    jane.messina@zoo.ox.ac.uk
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  2. Moritz UG Kraemer

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  3. Oliver J Brady

    Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  4. David M Pigott

    Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  5. Freya M Shearer

    Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  6. Daniel J Weiss

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  7. Nick Golding

    Department of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  8. Corrine W Ruktanonchai

    WorldPop project, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  9. Peter W Gething

    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  10. Emily Cohn

    Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  11. John S Brownstein

    Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  12. Kamran Khan

    Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  13. Andrew J Tatem

    WorldPop project, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  14. Thomas Jaenisch

    Section Clinical Tropical Medicine, Department for Infectious Diseases, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  15. Christopher JL Murray

    Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Seattle, United States
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  16. Fatima Marinho

    Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health Brazil, Brasilia, Brazil
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  17. Thomas W Scott

    Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, United States
    Competing interests
    No competing interests declared.

  18. Simon I Hay

    Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
    Competing interests
    Simon I Hay, Reviewing editor; eLife.

Reviewing Editor

  1. Mark Jit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, United Kingdom

Publication history

  1. Received: February 15, 2016
  2. Accepted: April 10, 2016
  3. Accepted Manuscript published: April 19, 2016 (version 1)
  4. Version of Record published: June 1, 2016 (version 2)

Copyright

© 2016, Messina et al.

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

Metrics

  • 33,390
    Page views
  • 8,122
    Downloads
  • 176
    Citations

Article citation count generated by polling the highest count across the following sources: Scopus, Crossref, PubMed Central.

Download links

A two-part list of links to download the article, or parts of the article, in various formats.

Downloads (link to download the article as PDF)

Download citations (links to download the citations from this article in formats compatible with various reference manager tools)

Open citations (links to open the citations from this article in various online reference manager services)

Categories and tags

Research organisms

Further reading

    1. Ecology
    2. Epidemiology and Global Health

    The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

    Moritz UG Kraemer et al.
    Research Article Updated

    Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.

    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Microbiology and Infectious Disease

    Tropical Disease: A Collection of Articles

    Edited by Prabhat Jha et al.
    Collection Updated

    eLife has published papers on many tropical diseases, including malaria, Ebola, leishmaniases, Dengue and African sleeping sickness.

    1. Epidemiology and Global Health
    2. Genetics and Genomics

    Isolation and transcriptomic analysis of Anopheles gambiae oenocytes enables the delineation of hydrocarbon biosynthesis

    Linda Grigoraki et al.
    Research Article Updated