Respiratory syncytial virus is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection among infants. RSV is a priority for vaccine development. In this study, we investigate the potential effectiveness of a two-vaccine strategy aimed at mothers-to-be, thereby boosting maternally acquired antibodies of infants, and their household cohabitants, further cocooning infants against infection. We use a dynamic RSV transmission model which captures transmission both within households and communities, adapted to the changing demographics and RSV seasonality of a low-income country. Model parameters were inferred from past RSV hospitalisations, and forecasts made over a 10-year horizon. We find that a 50% reduction in RSV hospitalisations is possible if the maternal vaccine effectiveness can achieve 75 days of additional protection for newborns combined with a 75% coverage of their birth household co-inhabitants (∼7.5% population coverage).
- David James Nokes
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
- Anna Akhmanova, Utrecht University, Netherlands
- Received: March 19, 2019
- Accepted: March 26, 2020
- Accepted Manuscript published: March 27, 2020 (version 1)
© 2020, Brand et al.
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