Respiratory syncytial virus is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection among infants. RSV is a priority for vaccine development. In this study, we investigate the potential effectiveness of a two-vaccine strategy aimed at mothers-to-be, thereby boosting maternally acquired antibodies of infants, and their household cohabitants, further cocooning infants against infection. We use a dynamic RSV transmission model which captures transmission both within households and communities, adapted to the changing demographics and RSV seasonality of a low-income country. Model parameters were inferred from past RSV hospitalisations, and forecasts made over a 10-year horizon. We find that a 50% reduction in RSV hospitalisations is possible if the maternal vaccine effectiveness can achieve 75 days of additional protection for newborns combined with a 75% coverage of their birth household co-inhabitants (∼7.5% population coverage).
All data generated or analysed during this study are included in the manuscript, supporting files or on the cited Github Repository. Source data files have been provided for Figures 2-6.
- David James Nokes
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
- Anna Akhmanova, Utrecht University, Netherlands
© 2020, Brand et al.
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