Association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2: a household transmission study

South Africa has experienced five waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with over 4 million laboratory-confirmed cases by August 2022 (National Institute for Communicable Diseases, 2022a). The true burden is highly underestimated, since based on seroprevalence data, after the third wave of infection, 43 to 83% of the 59.5 million South African inhabitants had already been infected, varying by age and setting (Kleynhans et al., 2022a; Bingham et al., 2022).

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is mainly via the respiratory route, through both droplet-mediated and airborne transmission (Meyerowitz et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2021). Infection from contaminated surfaces has also been described (Meyerowitz et al., 2021). Although infection risk is highest in symptomatic individuals (Madewell et al., 2020), with the most infectious period one day before symptom onset (Meyerowitz et al., 2021), asymptomatic individuals can still transmit SARS-CoV-2 (Liu, 2019; Cohen et al., 2022). Households are a focal point for SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Aleta et al., 2022; Hsu et al., 2021), especially during peaks of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) restrictions, when movement outside of the household was limited (Aleta et al., 2022). Transmission within households can in turn lead to spillover to the community (Nande et al., 2021).

Prior to the widespread availability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, most countries relied on NPIs to reduce the transmission of the virus, including wearing face masks, social and physical distancing. While mobility and contact survey data showed that the implementation of NPIs led to a reduction in community contacts (Aleta et al., 2022; Liu et al., 2021) and in turn opportunity for infection, it is still unknown what the role of contact patterns are in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the household. Most analysis relating contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission done to date has been based on low-resolution data collected from contact tracing (McAloon et al., 2021), mobility data (Aleta et al., 2022), and contact surveys (Liu et al., 2021). To obtain high-resolution contact data, devices broadcasting and receiving radio frequency waves can be used to measure the frequency and duration of close-proximity contacts. This has been used previously to collect contact data in among others, schools (Salathé et al., 2010), workplaces (Cattuto et al., 2010), hospitals (Voirin et al., 2015), and households (Kiti et al., 2016), which can, in turn, be used for modeling disease transmission. Specifically, for SARS-CoV-2 so far, high-resolution contact data were collected on cruise ships to identify areas of high contact and to investigate the usefulness of NPIs (Pung et al., 1956).

Understanding the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the household, especially contact patterns, can help inform NPIs for future SARS-CoV-2 resurgences and potentially future emerging pathogens with pandemic potential. We aimed to assess the association of household close-range contact patterns with the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the household using proximity sensors deployed after the identification of SARS-CoV-2 in the household.

We screened 1531 individuals and identified 277 (18%) positive for SARS-CoV-2, of which 124 (45%) were enrolled and included in the household cumulative infection risk analysis (Kleynhans et al., 2022b), with 373 household contacts. After data cleaning, we had contact data for 88 (71%) index cases and 252 (68%) household contacts (Figure 1). Ninety-three individuals (19%, 36 index cases, and 73 household contacts) were excluded due to non-compliance, where no contacts were logged, or sensors were stationary for the period based on accelerometer data. We were more likely to have contact data for individuals from the Soweto site, from larger households, and with no household member reporting smoking indoors (Table 1). The median number of household members included in the analysis was 4 (interquartile range [IQR] 3–5), with a median of 3 (IQR 1–4) SARS-CoV-2 cases per household and a median of 67% (IQR 50–100%) of household members infected (including index cases). Sixty-six percent (225/340) of individuals included in the analysis lived in a household with 3–5 members, and 49% (168/340) lived in a home with only 1–2 rooms used for sleeping, a third (53/340) living in households where crowding was reported (>2 people per sleeping room Table 1).

Figure 1

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The overall median daily and maximum duration of close-range proximity events was 18 min (IQR 9–45 min) and 61 min (IQR 25–142 min), respectively. The average duration per close-range proximity event was 0.7 min (IQR 0.5–0.8 min), with a median of 26 (IQR 10–58) close-range proximity events per day amongst household members (Figures 2 and 3, Table 2). The highest median daily contact duration was observed between individuals within the <5 year, 5–12 year and 35–59 year groups (Figure 4A and D). Similar patterns were also seen for median daily close-range proximity duration and frequency in children aged 5–12 and 13–17 years (Figure 4B–F).

Figure 2

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Figure 3

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Figure 4

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We did not find any association between any of the contact parameters (either with the index case or all SARS-CoV-2 infected household members) and SARS-CoV-2 infection in the household using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test (p-values ranging from 0.1–0.8, Table 3).

When assessing factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presumptive index cases and acquisition in household members, none of the contact parameters were associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission on univariate analysis. Sleeping in the same room as the index case was also not associated with transmission (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.47–1.88). On multivariable analysis after controlling for index age and SARS-CoV-2 infecting variant, factors significantly associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 transmission and acquisition was index case minimum C_t value <30 (aOR 16.8 95% CI 3.1–93.1) compared to C_t >35, and female contacts (aOR 2.5 95% CI 1.3–5.02). No contact parameters with the index case were associated with acquisition (Table 4). Similar results were observed in the sensitivity analysis when households with members seropositive at baseline were excluded (Table 5).

When not considering transmission from the presumptive index case, but rather all SARS-CoV-2 infected household members, factors significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition on multivariable analysis after controlling for age and SARS-CoV-2 infecting variant were being obese (aOR 4.1 95% CI 1.5–11.1) compared to normal weight, and not currently smoking (aOR 3.2 95% CI 1.2–9.2). No contact parameters with SARS-CoV-2 infected household members were associated with acquisition (Table 6).

In this case-ascertained, prospective household transmission study we did not find an association between the duration and frequency of close-range proximity events with SARS-CoV-2 infected household members and transmission in the household.

High-resolution contact patterns have been previously used in the context of pathogen transmission. Examples include investigating influenza virus transmission routes in a hospital setting (Whitney, 2016), and contact surveys to show the association between contacts, locations, and influenza infection (Kwok et al., 2014). For bacterial infections, the high correlation between pneumococcal infection risk and contact behavior has been shown (Qian et al., 2022), and in the context of tuberculosis transmission, it was shown that contact with adults is more important than contact with children (Dodd et al., 2016). To our knowledge, there are few data available on the direct association of close-range proximity events and SARS-CoV-2, and none make use of high-resolution contact data. During contact tracing efforts early in the pandemic in Singapore, it was found that sharing a bedroom with an index case and speaking to the index case for 30 min or longer increased the risk for infection (Ng et al., 2021). We did not see similar results when assessing sharing a bedroom with the index case, and this may be due to the already high level of crowding in included households. Although we observed an increase in infection risk with higher average contact durations with the index case on univariate analysis, this association was no longer seen when adjusting for age and other index and contact factors associated with transmission/acquisition. Mobile device geolocation has also been used to predict contact events between individuals on population level, and was used in transmission models to predict case numbers (Crawford et al., 2022). However, we did not find close-range proximity events to be an important driver for household transmission.

There are several possible reasons why we did not observe an association between close-range proximity events and SARS-CoV-2 transmission; these can be classified as related to transmission dynamics or study limitations. One possibility is that along with droplet-mediated transmission during close-proximity contacts, airborne (Meyerowitz et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2021), and to a lesser extent, fomite-mediated transmission (Meyerowitz et al., 2021) may also play a role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the household. More evidence is becoming available showing that aerosol transmission may be a more important transmission route for SARS-CoV-2 than initially anticipated, especially so in poorly ventilated indoor environments (Wang et al., 2021; Duval et al., 2022). Households in these communities do not have central air-conditioning or heating (Mathee et al., 2021), and during the winter months ventilation may be poorer than in summer, although we did not measure this. Furthermore, sensors only measure face-to-face interactions, and if individuals were close to each other but not directly facing one another for extended durations, we would not have measured this, although sharing of the same air may have occurred. The ventilation within households should be considered in future studies, as this can be a target for intervention strategies to reduce secondary transmission. The high level of interaction in relatively crowded South African households may already be above the threshold for transmission risk, with host characteristics like index viral load and contact age being more important to determine infection risk in this context. It is of interest that close-range proximity patterns within the household did not fully account for the differences in transmission based on age; with teenagers and adults experiencing the highest infection risk, but children aged 5–17 years having the highest contacts.

Our study had limitations both in design and execution. Due to the nature of the case-ascertained study design, we would have missed the period when the index case was most infectious, just before symptom onset (Meyerowitz et al., 2021), and the close-range contact patterns measured during the study may have been different after the household members were aware of the index SARS-CoV-2 case (leading to reduced contact), and again once secondary cases were informed of their infection status (leading to increased contact). We also did not collect any information on possible NPI usage in the households, like wearing masks. A study from South Africa showed that individuals staying at home were less likely to wear a mask (Burger et al., 2022), but these data were not ascertained during a time when a household member was infected with SARS-CoV-2. We also did not consider where contacts took place (indoors or outdoors), which relates to ventilation and may have influenced transmission. We may have also misclassified the true index case if they were asymptomatic, and did not consider tertiary transmission chains in the index-directed analysis. To adjust for possible misclassification, we performed a grouped assessment investigating close-range proximity events with all SARS-CoV-2 infected household members. This grouped analysis may also have diluted possible associations with the true infector. Furthermore, although based on legislation, close contacts (including household contacts) of SARS-CoV-2 cases were supposed to quarantine, compliance was not monitored. Therefore, household contacts could have been exposed to non-household SARS-CoV-2 cases during the follow-up period. We did not consider multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 within the household, although we did exclude households with more than one SARS-CoV-2 variant detected. During the peaks of waves of infection in South Africa, one variant was responsible for the majority of the infections (National Institute for Communicable Diseases, 2022b), and the additional introductions within the household were likely to have been the same as the initial variant. Higher resolution sequencing data may be useful to more accurately identify chains of transmission within the household. Combining contact data with clinical and virological/bacteriological data has been shown to be useful to reconstruct transmission networks (Campbell et al., 2019), and we will consider this for future analyses. Our measurement of close-range contact patterns was also limited by compliance, as during the cleaning process we identified 73 sensors that were not worn, based on accelerometer data. We also had limited data in some households, where some individuals did not consent to the contact aspect of the study, or where we were unable to retrieve data due to hardware failure, lost, or damaged tags. The small sample size may have reduced our power to detect small differences in close proximity event parameters between those infected with SARS-CoV-2 and those not infected.

In conclusion, we did not observe an association between close-proximity contacts and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the household. A case-ascertained, prospective household transmission study may not be well suited to investigate this question. A possible other study design to consider is randomly selected prospective household cohorts, but the deployment of sensors for extended periods of time may be logistically challenging and lead to participant fatigue, and households in a cohort may not experience infection episodes unless the community attack rate is very high. High-resolution contacts in other settings like schools or workplaces where contacts are less frequent could be useful to identify the type of contact events that may lead to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. If aerosol transmission plays a more important role in transmission than droplet-mediated transmission, ventilation within households can also be an important consideration for future studies. Increased ventilation could potentially be a method to reduce secondary transmission in households. Nevertheless, our study provides high-resolution household contact data that can be used to parametrize future transmission models, not only for SARS-CoV-2, but other pathogens as well.

The contact network, selected individual characteristics and analysis script are available at https://github.com/crdm-nicd/sashts (copy archived at Kleynhans, 2023).

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Author details

1. Jackie Kleynhans

   1. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
   2. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing

   For correspondence

   jackiel@nicd.ac.za

   Competing interests

   reports institutional grant funding from UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, Wellcome Trust, WHO AFRO, Africa Pathogen Genomics Initiative (Africa PGI) through African Society of Laboratory Medicine (ASLM) and Africa CDC, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) and UK Department of Health and Social Care and managed by the Fleming Fund: SEQAFRICA project. The author has no other competing interests to declare

   "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0001-7081-6273

2. Lorenzo Dall'Amico

   ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   received support from the European Union's Horizon 2a020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No. 101003688 (EpiPose) and No. 101016233 (PERISCOPE). The author acknowledges support from the Lagrange Project of ISI Foundation funded by CRT Foundation. They were awarded a PhD contract with Grenoble INP, and received support for attending meetings/travel from the ISP Foundation and Grenoble INP. The author has no other competing interests to declare

   "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-7493-6421

3. Laetitia Gauvin

   1. ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
   2. Institute for Research on Sustainable Development, Aubervilliers, France

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   has received Payment or honoraria for lectures from the University of Torino, Italy. They received support from the Lagrange Project of ISI Foundation funded by CRT Foundation. The authors has no other competing interests to declare

4. Michele Tizzoni

   1. ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
   2. Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, Trento, Italy

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   acknowledges support from the Lagrange Project of ISI Foundation funded by CRT Foundation

5. Lucia Maloma

   Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

   Contribution

   Data curation, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   No competing interests declared

6. Sibongile Walaza

   1. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
   2. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Resources, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   reports institutional grant funding from WHO AFRO, Africa Pathogen Genomics Initiative (Africa PGI) through African Society of Laboratory Medicine (ASLM) and Africa CDC, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), UK Department of Health and Social Care and managed by the Fleming Fund: SEQAFRICA project and the Wellcome Trust. The author has no other competing interests to declare

7. Neil A Martinson

   1. Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
   2. Johns Hopkins University Center for TB Research, Baltimore, United States

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Resources, Investigation, Project administration, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   received grant funds from Pfizer. They participated on the data safety monitoring board of a TB HDT trial, and on the Scientific Advisory Board of a trial of an electronic reminder to take daily TB treatment. They hold an unpaid leadership role at the Setshaba Research Center. The authors has no other competing interests to declare

8. Anne von Gottberg

   1. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
   2. School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Resources, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   reports receiving grant funds from Sanofi Pasteur and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. They act as chairperson of the National Advisory Group on Immunisation. The author has no other competing interests to declare

   "This ORCID iD identifies the author of this article:" 0000-0002-0243-7455

9. Nicole Wolter

   1. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
   2. School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

   Contribution

   Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

   Competing interests

   received grants from Sanofi Pasteur and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and from US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The author has no other competing interests to declare

10. Mvuyo Makhasi

    1. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    2. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Contribution

    Conceptualization, Writing – review and editing

    Competing interests

    No competing interests declared

11. Cheryl Cohen

    1. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    2. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Contribution

    Conceptualization, Resources, Formal analysis, Supervision, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

    Competing interests

    has received grant support from Sanofi Pasteur, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Welcome Trust, Programme for Applied Technologies in Health (PATH), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and South African Medical Research Council (SA-MRC). The author has no other competing interests to declare

12. Ciro Cattuto

    1. ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
    2. Department of Informatics, University of Turin, Turin, Italy

    Contribution

    Conceptualization, Resources, Formal analysis, Supervision, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

    Competing interests

    received support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No. 101003688 (EpiPose) and No. 101016233 (PERISCOPE), and from Fondation Botnar, EPFL COVID-19 Real Time Epidemiology I-DAIR Pathfinder. They also received support from the Lagrange Project of ISI Foundation funded by CRT Foundation, and received equipment from the European Space Agency. They were issued the patent US8660490B2. They received support for attending meetings/travel from Gulbenkian Foundation, and participate as a Steering Board Member at CRT Foundation, on the Advisory Board at The Data Guild and on the Advisory Board in GovLab's 100 Questions Initiative and Open Data Policy Lab. The authors has no other competing interests to declare

13. Stefano Tempia

    1. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    2. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Contribution

    Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Supervision, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Writing – review and editing

    Competing interests

    No competing interests declared

14. SA-S-HTS Group

    Competing interests

    reports institutional grant funding from UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, Wellcome Trust, WHO AFRO, Africa Pathogen Genomics Initiative (Africa PGI) through African Society of Laboratory Medicine (ASLM) and Africa CDC, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) and UK Department of Health and Social Care and managed by the Fleming Fund: SEQAFRICA project. The author has no other competing interests to declare

    1. Amelia Buys, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    2. Daniel G Amoako, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    3. Dylan Toi, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    4. Jinal N Bhiman, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    5. Juanita Chewparsad, Perinatal HIV Research Unit (PHRU), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
    6. Kedibone Ndlangisa, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    7. Leisha Genade, Perinatal HIV Research Unit (PHRU), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
    8. Limakatso Lebina, Perinatal HIV Research Unit (PHRU), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
    9. Linda de Gouveia, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    10. Mzimasi Neti, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
    11. Retshidisitswe Kotane, Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa

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