Avian influenza outbreaks have been occurring on smallholder poultry farms in Asia for two decades. Farmer responses to these outbreaks can slow down or accelerate virus transmission. We used a longitudinal survey of 53 small-scale chicken farms in southern Vietnam to investigate the impact of outbreaks with disease-induced mortality on harvest rate, vaccination, and disinfection behaviors. We found that in small broiler flocks (≤16 birds/flock) the estimated probability of harvest was 56% higher when an outbreak occurred, and 214% higher if an outbreak with sudden deaths occurred in the same month. Vaccination and disinfection were strongly and positively correlated with the number of birds. Small-scale farmers – the overwhelming majority of poultry producers in low-income countries – tend to rely on rapid sale of birds to mitigate losses from diseases. As depopulated birds are sent to markets or trading networks, this reactive behavior has the potential to enhance onward transmission.
The study dataset is available online at the Open Science Framework, https://osf.io/ws3vu/.
Poultry Population and Farm Management Dynamics - Ca Mau - VietnamOpen Science Framework, 10.17605/OSF.IO/WS3VU.
- Maciej F Boni
- Maciej F Boni
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Human subjects: The research collaboration was approved by the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, and the study design was approved by the Ca Mau sub-Department of Livestock Production and Animal Health. The Ca Mau sub-Department of Livestock Production and Animal Health (CM-LPAH) specifically approved this study and is equivalent to an Animal Care and Use Committee that approves studies like this in Vietnam. CM-LPAH approved the publication of these results. No consenting process was required as the study involved no human biological samples, no patients, and no personal or identifiable information. The IRB that made this determination was the Hospital for Tropical Diseases Scientific and Ethical Committee (Ho Chi Minh City).
- Joshua T Schiffer, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States
© 2020, Delabouglise et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
The endocannabinoid system consists mainly of 2-arachidonoylglycerol and anandamide, as well as cannabinoid receptor type 1 (CB1) and type 2 (CB2). Based on previous studies, we hypothesized that a circulating peptide previously identified as Osteogenic Growth Peptide (OGP) maintains a bone-protective CB2 tone. We tested OGP activity in mouse models and cells, and in human osteoblasts. We show that the OGP effects on osteoblast proliferation, osteoclastogenesis, and macrophage inflammation in vitro, as well as rescue of ovariectomy-induced bone loss and prevention of ear edema in vivo are all abrogated by genetic or pharmacological ablation of CB2. We also demonstrate that OGP binds at CB2 and may act as both an agonist and positive allosteric modulator in the presence of other lipophilic agonists. In premenopausal women, OGP circulating levels significantly decline with age. In adult mice, exogenous administration of OGP completely prevented age-related bone loss. Our findings suggest that OGP attenuates age-related bone loss by maintaining a skeletal CB2 tone. Importantly, they also indicate the occurrence of an endogenous peptide that signals via CB2 receptor in health and disease.
Evaluating the characteristics of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern is essential to inform pandemic risk assessment. A variant may grow faster if it produces a larger number of secondary infections ('R advantage') or if the timing of secondary infections (generation time) is better. So far, assessments have largely focused on deriving the R advantage assuming the generation time was unchanged. Yet, knowledge of both is needed to anticipate impact. Here we develop an analytical framework to investigate the contribution of both the R advantage and generation time to the growth advantage of a variant. It is known that selection on a variant with larger R increases with levels of transmission in the community. We additionally show that variants conferring earlier transmission are more strongly favoured when the historical strains have fast epidemic growth, while variants conferring later transmission are more strongly favoured when historical strains have slow or negative growth. We develop these conceptual insights into a new statistical framework to infer both the R advantage and generation time of a variant. On simulated data, our framework correctly estimates both parameters when it covers time periods characterized by different epidemiological contexts. Applied to data for the Alpha and Delta variants in England and in Europe, we find that Alpha confers a +54% [95% CI, 45-63%] R advantage compared to previous strains, and Delta +140% [98-182%] compared to Alpha, and mean generation times are similar to historical strains for both variants. This work helps interpret variant frequency dynamics and will strengthen risk assessment for future variants of concern.