Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries
- Imperial College London, Switzerland
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom
- University of Notre Dame, France
- University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Institute for Disease Modelling, United States
- Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Pennsylvania State University, United States
- Kaiser Permanente Washington,, United States
- University of Notre Dame, United States
Abstract
Background: Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by COVID-19. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.
Methods: We used 2-3 models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage and delaying campaign vaccination for measles, meningococcal A and yellow fever vaccination in 3-6 high burden countries per infection.
Results: Reduced routine coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may increase measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns may lead to measles outbreaks and increases in yellow fever burden in some countries. For meningococcal A vaccination, short term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact.
Conclusion: The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries.
Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.
Data availability
All code, data inputs and outputs used to generate the results in the manuscript (apart from projections about vaccine coverage beyond 2020 which are commercially confidential property of Gavi) are available at: https://github.com/vimc/vpd-covid-phase-I.
Article and author information
Author details
Katy A M Gaythorpe
Funding
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1157270 and INV-016832)
- Katy A M Gaythorpe
- Kaja Abbas
- John Huber
- Andromachi Karachaliou
- Niket Thakkar
- Kim Woodruff
- Xiang Li
- Susy Echeverria-Londono
- Matthew Ferrari
- Michael Jackson
- Kevin McCarthy
- Alex T Perkins
- Caroline Trotter
- Mark Jit
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Copyright
© 2021, Gaythorpe et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries
eLife 10:e67023.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67023
Further reading
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Background: The role of circulating metabolites on child development is understudied. We investigated associations between children's serum metabolome and early childhood development (ECD).
Methods: Untargeted metabolomics was performed on serum samples of 5,004 children aged 6-59 months, a subset of participants from the Brazilian National Survey on Child Nutrition (ENANI-2019). ECD was assessed using the Survey of Well-being of Young Children's milestones questionnaire. The graded response model was used to estimate developmental age. Developmental quotient (DQ) was calculated as the developmental age divided by chronological age. Partial least square regression selected metabolites with a variable importance projection ≥ 1. The interaction between significant metabolites and the child's age was tested.
Results: Twenty-eight top-ranked metabolites were included in linear regression models adjusted for the child's nutritional status, diet quality, and infant age. Cresol sulfate (β = -0.07; adjusted-p < 0.001), hippuric acid (β = -0.06; adjusted-p < 0.001), phenylacetylglutamine (β = -0.06; adjusted-p < 0.001), and trimethylamine-N-oxide (β = -0.05; adjusted-p = 0.002) showed inverse associations with DQ. We observed opposite directions in the association of DQ for creatinine (for children aged -1 SD: β = -0.05; p =0.01; +1 SD: β = 0.05; p =0.02) and methylhistidine (-1 SD: β = - 0.04; p =0.04; +1 SD: β = 0.04; p =0.03).
Conclusion: Serum biomarkers, including dietary and microbial-derived metabolites involved in the gut-brain axis, may potentially be used to track children at risk for developmental delays.
Funding: Supported by the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Brazilian National Research Council.
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