A new statistical model for tracking current and potential rates of disease transmission.

Multi-model ensembling projected that the Delta variant would lead to a substantial COVID-19 resurgence in the US, with higher vaccination uptake being a critical factor for limiting transmission and impact between states.

Broader case variation in respiratory viral load, and in shedding virus via droplets and aerosols, for SARS-CoV-2 than influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 facilitates greater transmission heterogeneity in the COVID-19 pandemic than the 2009 flu pandemic.

Model-inference reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in South Africa during March 2020 to February 2022, and quantified the immune erosion potential and transmissibility of three major variants (Beta, Delta, and Omicron), highlighting their common characteristics and the need for more proactive preparedness.

Infection experiments in ferrets reveal swine influenza viruses need their hemagglutinin antigen to become stabilized for transmissibility, adding a new property to consider when triaging field isolates for pandemic potential.

Influenza transmission among ferrets correlates strongly with transmission among humans, so the ferret model for influenza transmission is a valid tool for pandemic potential in humans.

A mathematical model of blood-stage infection with Plasmodium falciparum malaria capturing the sexual stage of the parasite life-cycle is validated against human data, providing new insight into human-to-mosquito transmission.

HIV co-infection does not affect Mycobacterium tuberculosis mutation rates and does not drive the emergence of antimicrobial resistance within patients in the largest outbreak of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Latin America to date.

Common variants of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and its ligand, the human ACE2 receptor, increase the binding affinity, suggesting that they could increase viral transmissibility.

Serocatalytic models applied to seroprevalence data from England reveal an increase in Enterovirus D68 transmission that occurred before 2011.